Polymarket gives 88% to Messi for Best Player of the 2026 World Cup after
According to Championat.
Why this matters
Argentina's victory over England in the semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup not only guaranteed Albiceleste's presence in the final, but also solidified Lionel Messi as the big favorite to be named Best Player of the tournament. With a probability of 88% according to Polymarket, Messi's performance has been crucial to the team's success, reflecting his importance in the context of world football and in the fight for the title.
Main conclusions
- Polymarket gives 88% to Messi for Best Player of the 2026 World Cup after.
- After Argentina's 2-1 victory over England in the semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup, Polymarket raises the probability of Lionel Messi receiving the award for Best Player of the tournament to 88%.
- Шансы Месси на «Золотой мяч» ЧМ-2026 выросли 88% после победы над Англией — Polymarket.
Lionel Messi is, at the moment, the big favorite to be named Best Player of the 2026 World Cup. According to the prediction markets platform Polymarket, the Argentine captain has an 88% chance of winning the most coveted individual prize of the tournament, an assessment that skyrocketed after Albiceleste's 2-1 triumph against England in the semi-finals, a result that sealed the presence of Lionel Scaloni's team in the final.
According to the same source, the probability associated with Messi increased by 76 percentage points following the game against the English, reflecting the perception of bettors and users regarding the impact of the number 10 shirt and the competitive moment of the defending world champion team. The market's reading is clear: with Argentina in the trophy decider, the scenario of the 39-year-old star once again being distinguished as the best in the tournament has gained substantial strength.
Behind Messi comes Rodri, midfielder for the Spain national team, with a 9% chance. The favorites' podium closes with Lamine Yamal (Spain), scored at 2%. Kylian Mbappé (France) appears with 1%, along with Jude Bellingham (England), while Harry Kane (England) appears below 1%. In light of the latest update, the trend shows very significant gains for Messi and declines for the remaining highlighted names.
Polymarket Ranking — Best Player of the 2026 World Cup:
- Lionel Messi (Argentina) — 88% (+76%)
- Rodri (Spain) — 9% (-2%)
- Lamine Yamal (Spain) — 2% (-16%)
- Kylian Mbappé (France) — 1% (-13%)
- Jude Bellingham (England) — 1%
- Harry Kane (England) — less than 1%
The award for Best Player of the World Cup (historically known as the tournament's Ballon d'Or) is awarded by FIFA at the end of the competition to the footballer considered most influential and decisive throughout the various phases. Messi already knows what it's like to be recognized with this distinction in previous editions and, in 2026, he will once again lead public and media preferences, now also reflected in the prediction markets.
It is important to emphasize that the odds published on Polymarket are not equivalent to an official decision: they are dynamic quotes based on the expectations of market participants, and may fluctuate with the rhythm of events until the final whistle of the tournament. Still, Argentina's presence in the final and the competitive weight of its captain contribute to consolidating the number 10's favoritism.
With the decision of the 2026 World Cup just around the corner, the discussion over the individual award promises to remain at the center of attention. Among world-class midfielders like Rodri, young sensations like Lamine Yamal and scorers of the caliber of Mbappé, Bellingham and Kane, it is Messi who stands out to close the tournament at the top of individual distinctions, according to the latest projections from Polymarket.
What happens next
With Argentina on its way to the 2026 World Cup final, expectations are high regarding the performance of Messi and the team. The pressure to maintain the level of play will be intense, especially considering that the captain is seeking not only the title, but also individual consecration as Best Player of the tournament, a feat that could further reinforce his legacy in football.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of the game between Argentina and England?
Argentina beat England 2-1 in the semi-finals.
How did Argentina's victory impact Messi's chances for Best Player at the 2026 World Cup?
Messi's odds increased to 88%, rising 76 percentage points after the win.
What is Argentina's current position in the 2026 World Cup table?
Argentina is in the final of the 2026 World Cup after winning the semi-finals.
Who are Messi's main competitors for Best Player of the 2026 World Cup?
The main competitors are Rodri with 9% and Lamine Yamal with 2%.
3>What is Argentina's next game at the 2026 World Cup?
Argentina will play in the 2026 World Cup final.