In Yahoo's 2026 Soccer Pick 'Em Challenge with FOX One, the goal is simple: pick a player who scores the most goals in the group stage of this summer's World Cup. Among 12 pre-selected names, each goal in the first three games of the competition is worth three points. Unlike the Golden Shoe, only the group stage is valid here — which gives even greater value to those who take penalties, accumulate minutes and have accessible pairings. Here is the ranking, from least favorite to favorite.
• Lamine Yamal (Spain) If he were 100%, he would be a stronger candidate. Even with Luis de la Fuente admitting that he could arrive fit for the opening game, it is difficult to see him playing the majority of minutes in the three matches. He has only scored one penalty for his country, so he may not even be the first option from the 11 meter mark.
• Romelu Lukaku (Belgium) He reached 90 goals for the national team in a friendly against Croatia and could even take penalties if Kevin De Bruyne doesn't do so. Still, with Belgium transitioning to a generation led by Jérémy Doku, less play is expected for Lukaku.
• Christian Pulisic (United States) The USA are favorites in Group D mainly because they play at home. Even so, they will face two low block teams (Paraguay and Australia) and a stronger Türkiye. As the penalty taker, Pulisic shone in a try against Senegal, but projections above two or three goals seem short.
• Ousmane Dembélé (France) and Bukayo Saka (England) The argument applies to both: neither is the first penalty taker or the absolute focus of the attack. They have the ability to add shots and goals, but they are not the safest “straight” bet.
• Cody Gakpo (Netherlands) In Qatar, he scored in every group game and has 19 goals in 49 international appearances. Memphis Depay's physical doubts make him a potential option for penalties, but Depay himself should steal enough chances to lower his ceiling.
• Vinícius Júnior (Brazil) He has not yet replicated the level he showed at the club in the national team: 9 goals in the first 48 games, with only one penalty conceded. Even with theoretically favorable duels against Haiti and Scotland, it is left out of the main choices.
• Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) The only one to score in five World Cups, but with just one goal in four of those five editions. He led Portugal in the standings with five goals (one from a penalty) and could add weight to his account against Uzbekistan and Congo. Minute management at age 41 is the brake.
• Lionel Messi (Argentina) He came within striking distance of the Golden Boot four years ago and led Argentina in qualifying with eight goals (surprisingly, none from penalties). He can “unload” against Jordan, but at 38 years old he can also rest this game.
• Kylian Mbappé (France) Twelve goals in two World Cups and Golden Shoe in 2022 with a hat-trick in the final. Even so, Didier Deschamps' France tends to start with greater competitive prudence. Excellent candidate for the tournament's Golden Boot, less ideal for leading only the group stage.
• Erling Haaland (Norway) The best striker in the world is tempting: 16 goals in eight qualifying games, without penalties. However, they did not face defenses on the level of France — or even Senegal — in that series. It's a great choice, but it's a second option.
• Harry Kane (England) — No. 1 pick Top scorer in 2018 with six goals (three from penalties), all in the group stage, including a hat-trick against Panama. He will face Panama again, as well as an aging Croatia and a Ghana with defensive doubts. England showed an offensive posture in the standings (22-0 in goals in eight games), with Kane leading the team with eight goals (one from a penalty). Complete “Checklist” to be the main bet.